Kathmandu, Sep. 10, 2025 — Nepal is grappling with its worst civil unrest in decades, as protests led by the country’s Generation Z have spiraled into violent anarchy, with government buildings stormed, politicians’ homes set ablaze, and at least 22 people killed in clashes with security forces. The unrest, initially sparked by a government ban on 26 major social media platforms, has evolved into a broader movement against systemic corruption, unemployment, and political mismanagement, raising questions about Nepal’s stability and its role in the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the United States, China, and India in South Asia.
The Spark: Social Media Ban and Gen Z Fury
On September 4, 2025, Nepal’s government, led by Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli, imposed a sweeping ban on social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, YouTube, and X, citing their failure to register under new regulatory rules. Critics, however, saw the move as an attempt to suppress a growing online campaign exposing nepotism and corruption among Nepal’s political elite. With 90% of Nepal’s 30 million people using the internet and the 16-25 age group comprising over 20% of the population, the ban struck a nerve with the digitally native Generation Z, who rely heavily on social media for communication and activism. See Ref
The protests erupted on September 8 in Kathmandu’s Maitighar Mandala, initially peaceful but quickly turning violent as security forces deployed tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets, and live ammunition to quell demonstrators attempting to breach the federal parliament. By the evening of September 9, at least 19 protesters were dead, with over 400 injured, many with critical gunshot wounds. The violence escalated further as protesters set fire to parliament, the Supreme Court, and the residences of Oli, President Ram Chandra Poudel, and other political leaders. Read more.
Facing mounting pressure, Oli resigned on September 9, citing an “extraordinary situation,” and the social media ban was lifted. However, the unrest continued, with curfews imposed in Kathmandu and other cities, and the Nepal Army deployed to restore order. Reports of prison breaks, with nearly 13,000 inmates escaping, and arson at police posts along the India-Nepal border have deepened the sense of anarchy. Read more.
Geopolitical Dimensions: A U.S.-China-India Triangle?
The unrest has drawn attention to Nepal’s precarious position as a geopolitical buffer between India and China, with some analysts, including Indian commentator Major Gaurav Arya of *The Chanakya Dialogues*, suggesting external powers may be influencing the chaos. Arya argues that the protests, while rooted in domestic grievances, align with a broader U.S.-China rivalry playing out in India’s neighborhood, potentially aimed at destabilizing New Delhi’s influence in Nepal. He points to historical precedents, such as the U.S.-India joint operations in the 1950s and 1960s, documented in *The President’s Secret Wars* by John Prados, which used Nepal as a base for covert actions against Chinese-controlled Tibet.
Nepal’s strategic location makes it a focal point for both China and India.
China has invested heavily in Nepal’s infrastructure, including the controversial Pokhara International Airport, mired in allegations of corruption involving Chinese loans. Meanwhile, India maintains deep cultural, economic, and security ties with Nepal, with an open border facilitating trade and movement. The timing of the protests, just before Oli’s planned visit to India and after his recent trip to China, has fueled speculation of foreign interference. Some analysts, like geopolitical expert SL Kanthan, claim the unrest bears hallmarks of a “U.S.-engineered” regime change, citing similar patterns in recent uprisings in Bangladesh (2024) and Sri Lanka (2022). Others caution against oversimplifying, arguing that Nepal’s youth-driven protests are primarily organic, rooted in economic despair and governance failures. Read more.
Regional Implications
The crisis in Nepal has significant implications for South Asia, particularly for India and China:
1. India’s Security Concerns: The unrest has disrupted cross-border activities, with India sealing its border with Nepal and suspending the Delhi-Kathmandu bus service. Indian citizens, including pilgrims and tourists, are stranded in Nepal, prompting New Delhi to issue travel advisories and set up emergency helplines. The violence along the India-Nepal border, including arson at police posts, has heightened security alerts in Indian states like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. India’s Ministry of External Affairs is closely monitoring the situation, wary of any spillover that could destabilize its northern frontier. Read more
2. China’s Influence Under Scrutiny:
China’s growing footprint in Nepal, through Belt and Road Initiative projects, has been a point of contention. The fact that TikTok, owned by China’s ByteDance, was spared from the social media ban has fueled suspicions of Beijing’s influence. However, the protests’ anti-corruption focus, including outrage over the Pokhara airport scandal, could complicate China’s investments if a new government adopts a more nationalist or India-leaning stance. Read more.
3. U.S. Interests and Regional Dynamics:
While no concrete evidence supports claims of U.S. involvement, Nepal’s unrest fits into a broader pattern of youth-led uprisings in South Asia, raising questions about external agendas. The U.S. has historically viewed Nepal as a counterbalance to Chinese influence, and any shift toward a pro-Western government could alter the regional balance, potentially straining India-China relations further. Read more
4. Economic Fallout:
Nepal’s economy, heavily reliant on remittances (33% of GDP) and tourism, faces severe disruption. The closure of Tribhuvan International Airport and the nationwide shutdown of transport services have stranded travelers and halted trade. The protests’ economic demands, including addressing 20% youth unemployment, highlight structural issues that could persist, potentially fueling further unrest.
Future Outlook Nepal’s trajectory remains uncertain.
The resignation of Oli and other ministers, alongside mass resignations from parties like the Rastriya Swatantra Party and Nagarik Unmukti Party, has created a political vacuum. Calls for restoring the monarchy, abolished in 2008, have resurfaced, with former King Gyanendra emerging as a symbolic figure for some protesters. Kathmandu’s mayor, Balendra Shah, has also gained prominence as a potential leader, backed by youth and civil society.
Analysts warn that without meaningful dialogue and reforms addressing corruption and unemployment, the unrest could escalate, drawing in more students and civil society groups. The Nepal Army’s warning of decisive action if violence persists signals the risk of further repression, which could inflame tensions. Internationally, the crisis underscores the fragility of small South Asian democracies caught in the U.S.-China-India geopolitical contest. Read more
For India, maintaining stability in Nepal is critical to countering Chinese influence and securing its border. For China, preserving its economic stakes will depend on Nepal’s next government. The U.S., while less visible, may see an opportunity to support a pro-Western shift, though any overt interference risks backlash. As Nepal’s Gen Z continues to clear streets and demand a “strong, free, and democratic Nepal,” the region watches closely, aware that the outcome could reshape South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. Read more
Sources: The New York Times, The Times of India, CNN, India Today, Al Jazeera, BBC, The Hindu, Reuters, Wikipedia, The Chanakya Dialogues
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