The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, has indeed expanded its operational reach beyond its traditional strongholds in KPK, with reports indicating activities in Punjab and other provinces- by Shabnam Choudry

The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, has indeed expanded its operational reach beyond its traditional strongholds in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), with reports indicating activities in Punjab and other provinces. However, the likelihood of the TTP taking over Pakistan is extremely low, though their resurgence poses significant security challenges.

TTP Presence at the Punjab Border

Recent reports confirm that the TTP has conducted attacks and established a presence in areas beyond their traditional bases, including Punjab. For instance:

• In November 2023, an affiliate of the TTP, Tehreek-e-Jihad (TEJ), attacked the Pakistan Air Force MM Alam Air Base in Mianwali, Punjab, resulting in significant losses, including 14 aircraft and 35 military personnel. This attack underscores the TTP's ability to strike in Punjab, a strategically and economically vital province.
• In 2023, TTP militants assassinated a senior officer of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Punjab, marking a significant escalation in their operational reach.
• Posts on X and other sources indicate that TTP activities, including targeted killings and IED attacks, have been reported in southern Punjab, though these claims are not always independently verified.

The TTP’s expansion into Punjab is facilitated by their safe havens in Afghanistan, from where they launch cross-border attacks, and their reintegration of splinter groups, which has bolstered their operational capacity. The group has also acquired advanced weaponry, such as sniper rifles and thermal scopes, enhancing their ability to conduct sophisticated attacks. The Afghan Taliban’s reluctance to curb TTP activities, coupled with their release of TTP prisoners after the 2021 takeover of Kabul, has further emboldened the group.

While the TTP’s presence in Punjab is a serious concern, it does not indicate control over the region. Their activities are primarily hit-and-run attacks, suicide bombings, and targeted killings aimed at destabilizing the state rather than holding territory. Punjab, as Pakistan’s most populous and politically dominant province, remains heavily guarded by security forces, making sustained TTP control unlikely.

Likelihood of TTP Taking Over Pakistan

The TTP’s stated objective is to overthrow the Pakistani government and self-apointed fascist gun order depriving the people of the land of their basic human rights including their right to self-determination as they have done in Afghanistan with the name tag as an "Islamic Emirate" what people called it barbarian and evil totalitarianism. Despite their resurgence since the Afghan Taliban’s 2021 takeover, several factors make a full takeover of Pakistan highly improbable:

1. Military and Security Response:
   • Pakistan’s military has conducted significant counterterrorism operations, such as Operation Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad, which previously weakened the TTP, reducing suicide attacks from a high of 85 in 2009 to 8 in 2019.
   • In June 2024, Pakistan launched Operation Azm-e-Istehkam to address both internal and cross-border threats, targeting TTP hideouts and leadership. Recent operations, such as those in Malakand and North Waziristan, have resulted in the elimination of TTP militants.
   • Pakistan has also conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan targeting TTP sanctuaries, though these have strained relations with the Afghan Taliban and caused civilian casualties.
2. TTP’s Limitations:
   • Estimates suggest the TTP has 3,000–35,000 fighters, far fewer than Pakistan’s military, which is one of the largest and best-equipped in the region.
   • While the TTP has expanded its reach, its operations are largely confined to guerrilla tactics, suicide bombings, and raids rather than territorial control. Their 2023 Peshawar mosque attack and other high-profile incidents demonstrate lethality but not the capacity to govern.
   • Internal divisions within the TTP, such as disputes over attacks like the 2023 Peshawar mosque bombing, could undermine their cohesion.
3. Geopolitical and Domestic Constraints:
   • The TTP’s reliance on Afghan safe havens makes them vulnerable to international pressure on the Afghan Taliban, particularly from China, which is concerned about attacks on its nationals and investments in Pakistan.
   • Public sentiment in Pakistan, especially in Punjab, is largely hostile to the TTP. A 2009 Pew survey showed 71% of Punjabis viewed the TTP as a serious threat, and recent posts on X suggest local resistance to TTP attacks in Punjab.
   • Pakistan’s economic crisis and political instability limit its ability to sustain large-scale operations, but they also incentivize the state to prioritize counterterrorism to maintain stability.
4. Regional Dynamics:
   • The Afghan Taliban’s support for the TTP complicates Pakistan’s security situation, but the Taliban’s own focus on consolidating power in Afghanistan and countering the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) limits their ability to fully back a TTP takeover.
   • International actors, including the U.S. and China, have interests in preventing Pakistan’s destabilization due to its nuclear arsenal and strategic location.

Assessment

The TTP’s reach into Punjab indicates a significant escalation in their capabilities, driven by safe havens in Afghanistan, access to advanced weaponry, and reintegration of splinter groups. However, a takeover of Pakistan is not feasible due to the TTP’s limited manpower, lack of territorial control, and Pakistan’s robust military response. The group’s strategy is more focused on destabilization through terrorism than governance. Pakistan’s challenges, including economic constraints and strained relations with Afghanistan, complicate counterterrorism efforts, but the state’s resolve, public opposition, and international support reduce the TTP’s chances of achieving their ultimate goal.