The suicide attack in Bajaur is a serious escalation of violence in the region. The finger-pointing at TTP and ISIS is a reminder of the complex and overlapping threats that the region faces. The UN report on the potential for an alliance between TTP and al-Qaeda is also a worrying development.
It is difficult to say how Kabul, Islamabad, and Delhi will interact in the future. On the one hand, there is a shared interest in combating terrorism and ensuring regional stability. On the other hand, there are also deep-seated mistrust and rivalry between the three countries.
It is possible that the suicide attack in Bajaur could lead to increased cooperation between the three countries. However, it is also possible that it could further exacerbate tensions. The future course of events will depend on a number of factors, including the response of the three governments to the attack, the actions of TTP and ISIS, and the broader regional security situation.
Here are some possible scenarios for the future of Kabul, Islamabad, and Delhi:
- Cooperation: The three countries could work together to combat terrorism and ensure regional stability. This would require a significant degree of trust and cooperation, but it could be a positive development for the region. The cooperation would enhance business opportunities for Pakistan on its both borders east and west. This would be a win-win position both for the people of India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The cooperation and trust between India and Pakistan would create a more favorable position for the people of Jammu and Kashmir on both sides of the divide.
- Increased tensions: The attack in Bajaur could lead to increased tensions between the three countries. This could manifest itself in a number of ways, including increased military activity, diplomatic tensions, and economic sanctions.
- Status quo: The situation could remain largely unchanged. This would be the least desirable outcome, as it would mean that the region remains mired in violence and instability.
It is impossible to say for sure which of these scenarios will play out. However, the suicide attack in Bajaur is a reminder of the challenges that the region faces and the importance of cooperation between the three countries.
Marriage between religious extremism, political violence, and narco-profiting:
The marriage of religious extremism, political violence, and narco-profiting in the region has created a toxic mix that has made cooperation and stability difficult to achieve, and the outcome of the historical wrongdoing goes back to the 80s. The billions of dollars generated by the narco trade have funded terrorist groups and armed insurgencies, while the violence and instability have created a breeding ground for extremism.
When Nato forces allowed and facilitated the Taliban with the help of Pakistan to occupy Kabul, the billions of heroin consignments were intercepted by anti-narcotic forces. For example, one consignment from Afghanistan via Iran arrived at the Indian port city of Gujrat worth more than 2 billion dollars. Another consignment flew from the Afghan city of Kandahar to Karachi and from Karachi to Bandar Abbas in Iran and from there it again landed the Gujrat port, India.
I had noticed in the recent past the narco activities in Jammu and Kashmir too. I was of the opinion that this is the new prescription by some to kill the young population of Jammu and Kashmir without leaving footprints of killers. The same has been and still happening both in Afghanistan and Pakistan where narco-profiting greed had created conditions for the people who face difficulties even to live a normal and decent life in such an environment.
These news stories in the last two weeks from Pakistan, that 10 KG of heroin's payload, was loaded on each drone were ready to fly across the border into India but intercepted by Pakistani police. So, illegal profiting in the region, in my view is the main stumbling block leading into the path toward cooperation between the governments and making life miserable in each country.
In order to achieve cooperation and stability in the region, it will be necessary to address the root causes of the problem. In order to address the root causes one must understand the root causes first. For example, Pakistan has always from 1947 onward, as a champion for Kashmir's cause but never ever its top leadership went to Delhi, to talk with its Indian counterpart in private "about what we both can do for the people of J&K in a friendly environment". Rheortics, allegations, and counter-allegations achieved nothing positive, the only exception is Bhutto-Gandhi. Therefore, the Afghan regime must allow the people of Afghanistan to elect their own representatives and distance themselves from a safe haven of terrorists. This would pave the way for cooperation between Kabul, Islamabad, and Delhi, a new era opening new doors in economic and cultural cooperation.
The cooperation would be helpful to tackle the narco trade, reduce poverty and unemployment, and promote education and better understanding at the domestic level where inflation at present is killing common people. It will also be necessary to build trust and cooperation between the governments of the region.
However this will be a difficult task, but it is essential if the region is to break free from the cycle of violence and instability.
There are some positive signs, such as Pakistan in its statements looks like, distancing itself from past practices, where a pro-Jihadi dominated policy formulation had always been and still are a determining factor and a swing toward economic development objectives should be a welcome sign.
The sense of economic development, in my view, itself has the power to dictate regional cooperation rather than a policy of conflict and confrontation. The capital distance itself from a place where there is no peace, no rule of law, no fear justice system, and high crime rates, and societies, countries, and regions are plagued with conflicts and confrontations.
Here are some specific steps that could be taken to address the problem:
- Tackling the narco trade: This would require a comprehensive approach that includes law enforcement, crop substitution programs, and economic development.
- Reducing poverty and unemployment: This would help to create opportunities for people and reduce their vulnerability to radicalization.
- Promoting education and understanding: This would help to build tolerance and understanding between different groups in the region.
- Building trust and cooperation between governments: This would require a willingness to compromise and work together for the common good. Need to avoid allegations and counter allegations at the International forum, talk with each other in private and replace "I" and "YOU" with "WE". This modern normative behavior would heal rather than harm each other. Healing touch would pave the pave to explore new horizons of cooperation.
It is important to remember that there is no single solution to the problem. The best approach will likely involve a combination of different measures. However, if the region is to achieve cooperation and stability, it is essential that these steps are taken and just look across the mountain over Jammu and Kashmir the people of Hotan, China's westernmost city, with a living standard of the west.
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